1. Sri Lanka must beat Bangladesh
(remember, in EITHER case, India has to beat Sri Lanka, so it does not get any easier for us, if Bangladesh beats Sri Lanka; it is only better for us if Bangladesh beats Sri Lanka – read on to find out why).
Necessarily that will only improve Sri Lanka’s net run rate and put them further ahead. REMEMBER that we talk of NET run rate. So even if both teams fire, the net improvement in NRR is only to the extent of the difference in the two teams. In short, Bangladesh’s NRR will go down a bit, thereafter.
2. India beats Sri Lanka, by JUST ENOUGH to see them through to the top of the NRR, and also ensure that way, that Sri Lanka’s NRR does not drop a lot, in the process. Again, repeat, that we HAVE to beat Sri Lanka, to have any chance. There is no escaping that fact.
3. Now, before Bangladesh take on Bermuda, they will have India and Sri Lanka a fair bit ahead of them, in the NRR, and if they have to come up ahead of the (assuming) second placed Sri Lanka, they will need to win by a huge margin, against Bermuda. That may not be so easy, and hence India and Sri Lanka will go ahead to the Super 8, in number 1 and 2 positions respectively.
Understand now also, what happens when teams get into Super 8.
Off the two teams going from each group, one of them would have beaten the other. For example, if India and Sri Lanka go, as per the above surmise, then India would have beaten Sri Lanka, in the group. In that case, at the start of the Super 8, that winning team (e.g. India) starts with 2 points, and the other team (e.g. Sri Lanka) starts with 0 points.
If India and Bangaldesh go, then it will be Bangladesh who would go with 2, and India with 0. So you see why it is important for India and Sri Lanka to go rather than India and Bangladesh (now you can see why in point number 1 above, I propose that Sri Lanka win today, and not Bangladesh).
One more interesting point. In the Super 8, all teams play all the rest of the super 8 teams, EXCEPT for their own group team (since they have already played each other in the first round). There will already be one ‘minnow’ (if you can still call them thus) team in the Super 8, viz. Ireland. Now if Bangladesh were to also make it into the super 8 instead of Sri Lanka, then think of it this way:
Say, New Zealand and South Africa emerge as their group leaders and hence start with 2 points each. They will be playing both, Ireland and Bangladesh in the Super 8 then, and they should win those games rather easily (with no disrespect to Ireland and Bangladesh). They will zoom in to 6 points without much sweat then. That would put so much more pressure on teams like India to catch up and get to the semi-finals, then.
On the other hand, if Sri Lanka and India make it, then it will only be an Ireland, who will be like a ‘weaker’ team in the Super 8, and the Super 8 will remain more open, with most teams having a chance to proceed into the last 4 stage.
Now you see, why the above mentioned points 1, 2 and 3, are what should happen now, from an Indian perspective… or even from a Sri Lankan perspective, for that matter.
Random Musings 